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Stephen Archer is a speaker with great charisma. By using illustrations and personal experiences and not being afraid to share his own point of view of the current situation and who is to blame for it, he engages the whole audience, at the same time helping us all to understand the credit crunch a little better.

— Warwick Business School

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The second recession dip – will there be one?

Recession

Image copyrights to Flickr user Hugh_Jack@ss

I said 6 months ago that there would not be a double dip. I am standing by that still but with less certainty! The recession of 08/09 was very unusual and the only significant and traditional, negative indicator was GDP across the Eurozone. I have always maintained that the recession will trail along a ‘bumpy bottom’ as the recovery from massive debt means fiscal and monetary prudence. The greater risk I now see is a creeping failure to control debt in the PIIGS and a degrading of the Euro and within confidence in the engine room of Europe – Germany.

There is also a risk we will not see a freeing up of liquidity which remains very tight. So for now, we in the UK and the Eurozone must keep interest rates low.

We must also keep pressure on the banks to be good citizens which they have yet to wake up to. We may be heading from what some call a Europe of austerity but trimming back on excesses and hubris should not be seen nor feel austere. We will still have very good living standards.


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